Lawrence, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

696
FXUS63 KTOP 180437
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1037 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Turning Colder over the Weekend

- Coldest air temperatures and wind chills will be early next
  week. Wind chills are forecast to drop into the -10 to -20
  range by Monday night and Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

A longwave trough was in the process of deepening across the
central US this afternoon while a shortwave was moving across OK
producing mid and high cloud across the area. At the surface,
low pressure was located over Lake Superior with a cold front
extending southwest into KS. The airmass behind this first front
was still mild with temps in the 40s across NE today. The true
Polar cold front and airmass was located across the Dakotas
with any Arctic airmass still lagging further north into Canada
this afternoon.

Tonight...conds should remain dry across the area as
lift/moisture with the shortwave remains southeast of the area
this evening. Increasing gusty north winds will overspread the
area and continue overnight. Lows tonight should fall into the
teens as colder air gradually pushes south.

Over the weekend, cold air will continue to spill southward into
the region as strong Polar high pressure of 1040-1050mb slides
into the Plains. The coldest air with this high should arrive
Sunday into Monday. A weak trough axis will move across the area
Monday and there could be light snow or flurries across parts
of central KS but chcs appear low (20% or lower) at this time.
This will usher in the coldest air with a 1040mb Arctic high
Monday night. Monday night into early Tuesday appears to the
coldest both for air temps and wind chills. Wind chills of
-10 to -20F appear possible early Tues mainly due to south winds on
 the backside of the high Tues morning.

The region will remain within a longwave trough through next
week which will keep temps near or below avg. Any shortwave
clipper type systems appear to stay to our northeast so conds
appear mainly dry at this time through next Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1036 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

North winds 12-16 kts with higher gusts will continue tonight and
through the afternoon before gradually weakening during Saturday
evening. Still a weak signal for some scattered MVFR ceilings during
the daytime hours, mainly further west towards KMHK, but otherwise
VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Omitt
AVIATION...Reese